On Saturday evening, in the Group C opener, Morocco held Brazil to a 1-1 draw and were, for long stretches of the first half, the better team on the pitch. Not accidentally better, but because Bouaddi, El Khannouss and Ounahi knew what to do with the ball, while the Brazilian midfield did not. A strange feeling, almost disorienting.
Brazil seemed capable of little more than elementary combinations between winger and full-back. The problem is that the full-backs are no longer Maicon, Dani Alves and Marcelo. They are Douglas Santos and Ibañez.
Morocco looked perfectly built to expose every Brazilian fragility: the lack of creativity and vision, the weak dynamism, and the total absence of any ability to press and win the ball back.
The squad list tells a story
27% of Brazil's World Cup squad plays in the Brazilian league. It sounds like a footnote, but it is not, given the rhythms and the nature of a fascinating championship that remains far from European standards. In the last four World Cups, that figure had never exceeded 13%, except in 2014 when it reached 17%.
On the other side, only 35% of this squad comes from top European clubs.
In 2006, players from top clubs accounted for 61%, not counting those at European sides going through an exceptional run: Juan at Bayer Leverkusen, Luisão at Benfica, and the Lyon trio winning Ligue 1 and reaching the Champions League quarter-finals, Cris, Juninho and Fred. Nobody in that squad came from a mid-table or lower-division league, and the 13% playing in Brazil were mostly backups.
By 2010 the golden generation was fading and no new wave had emerged: Neymar and Pato were left out, Ronaldinho was becoming a shadow of himself. The weight still fell on Kakà, Robinho, Luis Fabiano, Thiago Silva, Maicon and Dani Alves. They went out in the quarter-finals against a strong Netherlands side that would reach the final.
In 2014 the picture was similar: 57% from top clubs, Neymar at or near his peak, absent through injury for the 7-1 semifinal humiliation against a Germany that belongs in history. In 2018 the top-club figure hit 74%, yet the story ended in the quarters against a Belgian side at the height of its powers. In 2022 it was 69%, with quality additions across Europe, Paquetà at West Ham, Richarlison at a strong Tottenham. Out on penalties against Croatia, still in its golden age, finalist four years earlier.
Every time, an extraordinary opponent was waiting for Brazil. This time, the extraordinary opponent is the squad itself.
Who is here, who is missing, who should not be here
19% of the squad comes from second-tier leagues. That too is a record. Fabinho plays at Al-Ittihad and yet looked twice as sharp as Casemiro against Morocco. Ibañez plays at Al-Ahli, and one wonders whether Dodò at Fiorentina was really so much worse. Luiz Henrique and Douglas Santos play at Zenit and have 18 caps between them, combined.
Seeing João Pedro, Savinho and Alisson Santos left at home is puzzling. Seeing Gabriel Jesus left at home too, despite his difficult season, while watching what Igor Thiago produced against Morocco, feels closer to despair.
The share of players from top European clubs does not exceed 35%, and many of them arrive from anonymous seasons: Alisson, Casemiro. Others come from clubs that feel more like faded aristocracy than genuine powers: Bremer, Matheus Cunha.
The only players genuinely in form are probably Vinicius Jr., Gabriel (despite the missed penalty in the Champions League final, which could weigh on him) and Marquinhos. Martinelli won the Premier League scoring one goal, but remains a useful option. Raphinha swings between flashes of brilliance and invisible performances. Vinicius can often settle a difficult match with a single moment. Raphinha rarely lights up the room when he is not fully switched on.
It is no surprise that supporters have been calling for Neymar, even if having him in the squad feels more like an act of faith than a genuine game-changing resource.
The one new variable
This Brazil has something the previous editions did not. Carlo Ancelotti, a manager who has won everything and knows what it means to handle pressure and talent. A great coach who, however, has always built his success on great midfielders, men who kept the tempo in hand and brought order without killing creativity. Here there is nothing like that.
It is hard to say whether this is the worst Brazil side of all time. Perhaps results will help classify it more clearly. What is certain is that it is the least Brazilian Brazil there has ever been.
Will Ancelotti be enough to fill the gaps?